Когда в России коронавирус пойдет на спад? Какие прогнозы экспертов?

Это весьма актуальный вопрос, потому что коронавирус начал существенно влиять на жизнь россиян, пока больше в экономическом плане и в плане всевозможных ограничений, но ведь не исключено, что это коснется здоровья и жизни россиян. Поэтому точный прогноз развития пандемии коронавируса в России волнует многих.

Были высказаны две основных гипотезы в отношении развития пандемии коронавируса в России.

1) Благоприятный вариант (китайский) — пик эпидемии будет пройден в апреле-мае с относительно небольшими потерями. В июне все закончится.

2) Менее благоприятный вариант (итальянский) — пандемия в России продлится до осени или дольше.

Есть еще одно мнение, что Россия пойдет своим путем. Если сейчас удастся сдержать развитие пандемии в России любой ценой, прежде всего значительными ограничениями (каникулы, дистанционное обучение, нерабочая неделя для взрослых, закрытие магазинов и др., запретами на передвижение по России и даже карантинами в отдельных регионах), то возможно в мае начнется спад эпидемии из-за наступления тепла и повышенной солнечной активности в это время года.

Однако никто не может дать абсолютно точного прогноза развития пандемии коронавируса в России, потому что очень трудно учесть все переменные. Остается только надеяться на лучшее и запасаться мужеством.

Процитирую точку зрения главного врача уже широко известной московской больницы на Коммунарке, где лечатся больные коронавирусом Дениса Проценко:

Пока прирост заболеваемости есть, я думаю, пик придется на середину-конец следующей недели.

 

то есть названа середина-конец недели с 30 марта по 5 апреля.

И соответственно пик эпидемии придется на апрель.

Есть эпидемиологи, которые не разделяют энтузиазм коллеги из-за того , что ожидается возвращение в России большого количества туристов из-за рубежа. Так считает бывший главный инфекционист Москвы Николай Малышев .

На 27 марта 2020 г в России зафиксировано 840 случаев заражения коронавирусом.

Есть конечно очень много различных прогнозов. Их можно разделить на две группы. Оптимисты считают что к лету в России наступит спад эпидемии. Так считает главный эпидемиолог России Николай Брико. Вот что он сообщил «Интерфакс»:

Интенсивность распространения коронавируса пойдет на спад со сменой времени года.

 

Можно сделать выводы что пик эпидемии в России придется на апрель-май.

Когда возможно понижение заболеваемости в России, что известно из официальных источников, инфекция пошла на снижение?

Да, очень интересный вопрос. Но, к сожалению, даже пик коронавируса в нашей стране не пройден. Пока число инфицированных растёт. Именно для того, чтобы сократить число инфицированных, президент России Владимир Путин сделал всю следующую неделю с 30 марта и по 5 апреля нерабочей. И призвал всех оставаться дома.

А в настоящее время наши туристы возвращаются из-за рубежа в Россию. И, наверное, часть из них могут оказаться с коронавирусом. Поэтому им сразу же будет сделан тест на коронавирус.

Так что сейчас лучше поменьше контактов и не стоит без крайней необходимости выходить на улицу.

Что касается прогноза о спаде коронавируса в России, то Михаил Щелканов, вирусолог, завлабораторией экологии микроорганизмов Школы биомедицины Дальневосточного федерального университета, сказал, что наилучший вариант развития событий, при котором пандемия коронавируса пойдёт на спад- к лету, при наихудшем- к осени.

По его словам коронавирус чувствителен к влажности и ультрафиолету, а значит с мая активность вируса снизится.

Эксперты прогнозируют 2 варианта развития событий.

По первому, китайскому, варианту пик эпидемии Россия пройдет к концу апреля, а на спад эпидемия пойдет уже к концу мая-началу июня.

По итальянскому варианту эпидемия будет нарастать гораздо дольше и своего пика достигнет только к сентябрю, соответственно спада ждать. Раньше октября-ноября не стоит.

Будем надеется, что Россия сделает правильные выводы и примет максимально возможные адекватные меры по сдерживанию болезни. И будем надеяться, что пик мы пройдём уже в апреле и вернемся к нормальной жизни уже к лету.

Всем здоровья.

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